#5 Implied Odds and Expected Value
Implied Odds: The implication that the pot will give you a good pot odds call, because you believe others will enter the hand, or call.
Expected value: The value you can expect to get by calling if you hit your hand.
Example: You are first to act after the blinds with 33 and many at the table have been limping in repeatedly. The blinds are 50 chips which is relatively small compared to your stack. You decide to limp in with this weak hand. Currently your pot odds to call are bad because the current pot is 75 chips. You are calling with a weak hand at 1.5 to 1, but you know that at least 3 others at the table will call and the small blind will likely call, making the pot 250 if you had not called, so your call if you were last to act would have been 4.5 to 1. These are somewhat better odds and are what are called implied odds because you are first to act, but would be called pot odds if you were last. But, still 33 is a weak hand and you are out of position. An important part to consider in this, what are your odds to improve and hit a strong hand that has a good chance to win? Other than getting a very lucky flop and then being forced to chase an inside draw to hit a straight which you should not do, you really only are looking for another 3 to hit trip 3s. To know if it was a good preflop call you have to consider what your odds to hit one of the two other 3s for that big hand. Only about 11.8% of the time will you hit your trips on the flop. That is 7.5 to 1. Every 7 or 8 hands will you hit the trips. So in that many hands, making the same play at the same bet, you have put in 350 or 400 chips. So really considering the implied odds which eventually became pot odds (4.5 to 1) and comparing it with the odds to hit (7.5 to 1), we can’t consider it a good call if all you earn out of it each time is a pot of 300 which includes your bet. Why call with a weak hand at all if all you are going to get back is 250 for 50 put in? It is the Expected Value that we consider when we are looking at Implied odds.
The Expected Value within the hand is dependant upon the players at the table. If you are playing at a very tight table, your expected value will be low because even if you hit your trips, it is not likely a tight table will give up many chips even if they hit a pair or two pair. The only way a very tight table will put in a lot of chips is if they have your trips beat. If the players are pushing chips around every hand and taking big risks, the expected value goes up. However, even with the given example, the expected value of your trip 3s could be less than the expected value the other player has when evaluating his straight draw since a straight beats trips. If you do happen to hit your trips and you believe that the other player will push all in on a single pair, you have a 92% chance to win after the flop and pull in lot of chips.
Note: I have heard players over the years use the term implied odds when referring to what they might make if they made their hand, which is actually the expected value. It seems many have used the term "implied odds" interchangeably for that purpose. I prefer to exact, and since I have listened to Annie Duke and other known pros refer to expected value in the way that I have, I'm sticking with the precision that the terms imply in this fashion. "Implied odds" is odds. It is not a made hand. The word "value" represents a made hand such as in "Value Bet". You make a value bet when you have the hand. Expected Value implies that if you make your hand, what will the value be to you and not anyone else. Besides, Annie wouldn't steer me wrong.
