Loading
Bookmark and Share

#2 Different types of odds.

glossforumadmin 242 posts

Understanding odds does not have to be difficult, it just has to be attempted. To understand odds, start with one piece at a time. Do not get overwhelmed.  This story will help show where odds can be evaluated, but you don't have to understand it all at once.  Follow the numbers within this section and try to piece it together a little at a time.  Ask questions to get more understanding about a post.  Start with this example and then read the other posts for further explaination.

In late position with blinds at 100/200 and my stack at 5000 chips, everyone had folded around. I had AJ suited and decided to raise 3x blind to try take the button position. Player on the button and the small blind folded. The big blind with 2000 chips called the raise to 600. The pot is now at 1200 chips. A player pushed all in with 57 off suit to a flop of 248 rainbow and I called with AJ. Not only did I have a good read on the player (feeling he would push to try to buy the pot after the flop, I played him many times) but felt I still had the odds in my favor and so I called. The turn was a 10 the river a Q. I stated to him, "I raised preflop, why push there John?" He snapped, "Dude, I had more outs than you could count." I quickly told him, "Really? Because I only saw 10 outs for you and Dude, I had the odds." Of course I knew why he pushed there, he wanted to increase his odds of winning the hand, but I had him covered start to finish and by calling preflop and unnecessarily pushing post flop, he did my work for me. He either knew he didn't have the hand odds and tried to push me off the hand or he did not know the odds of the outs (cards that will improve his hand) he had. I took him out, his tournament finished. Why did I ask him? I also wanted to increase my odds the next time I played him. I wanted him to know that I was not a player for him to try to steal the pot, expecting me to fold. (I don't recommend this thought process for players you won't play again unless you have a massive stack that isn't dented by the call.)
Using this example, there are several different type of odds considered in the logic of my decision.
Player odds
Hand (card) odds
Pot odds
Chip stack odds
Odds to hit
Each of these will be explained further in other posts but for a quick overview of this hand:
My player odds were 75% in my mind based on the scattered play I had seem from him to that point.  Odds of winning due to the player, percentage is based on my evaluation of the player and his chances of folding if I bet. In my considerations was that he had to hit the flop.  The odds of any non-paired cards hitting the flop is about 30%, 70% they will not hit.  In my consideration was that I had position and may out play him even if he did hit.  But in this example, he pushed his chips in.  I believe because he knew I would push him in if he checked or made any lower bet.  Then he would have to fold or face a showdown if he called.  He did not want a showdown in this case and wanted to push me out of the hand before I had a chance to act.
My hand odds were 65% Preflop and relatively unchanged after the flop came out. (Odds of wining, due to the cards)
Pot Odds and Odds to hit.  My pot odds were just over 1.5 to 1. I had to put in 1 unit to get back 1.5 of the same unit. (The pot post flop was, 1200.  The other player put in 1400 more for a total pot of 2600 chips.  I had to put in 1400 more chips.  1400 to 2600 is about 1 to 1.5)  The pot odds by itself did not make it a very good call when I missed the flop completely and my odds to hit were about 24% after the flop. My odds of improving (odds to hit) were a little worse than 4 to 1 (25%) after the flop came out.  If he hit the flop, 3 times I lose, 1 time I win. I would have needed at least 4 times in the pot for it to be a good pot odds call. If the pot is 4000 and I am calling for 1000 (4 to 1), it makes math sense to call after the flop on pot odds.  By calling 4 to 1 when I am going to lose 3 out of 4 times, my pot odds are even and by the math I would be breaking even over many games.

Implied odds preflop were 4 to 1 which I wanted to lower to 1 to 1. It can be implied that the other 3 players may call my 600 chip raise. If they all do, the odds of the pot become 2400 chips and they are no longer implied but actual at the point they all call. What is then implied, is the continued building of the pot. Implied odds are, what the size of the pot could become.